The Countdown Begins: Top Analyst Weighs In on Nvidia Stock Ahead of Earnings – TipRanks
Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has turned beat-and-raise earnings into a routine, but will the streak continue when the AI chip giant reports its fiscal fourth-quarter (January quarter) results on Wednesday (Feb 26)? More importantly, if it does, will that be enough to shake the stock out of its recent lull and put it back in rally mode?
Given how things have unfolded over the past few months, Stifel’s top analyst Ruben Roy notes that sentiment appears different this time around.
“In contrast to prior quarters, the estimate revision trajectory suggests lower expectations heading into F4Q,” said Roy, who ranks in the top 3% of Wall Street stock experts. “We think this is also evident in valuation with NVDA shares 26x 2026 EPS versus a 33x 3-year average.”
Compared to feedback received in previous quarters, Roy’s recent checks have been “decidedly mixed.” While discussions around Blackwell’s demand remain largely positive, uncertainties about the company’s timeline for meeting demand have led to a “wide range of outcomes.”
While expectations might have shifted toward a more robust Blackwell ramp in the second half of the year, it is still uncertain whether this will translate into a substantial B200/GB200 ramp or a faster shift to the B300/GB300 cycle. “Longer-term,” the 5-star analyst went on to explain, “we do not think this will matter but, for now, given continued post DeepSeek market jitters, we are unlikely, in our view, to see a strong positive catalyst to shares out of earnings.”
Not exactly what investors would like to hear, then. As for the raw numbers, Roy’s F4Q25 revenue forecast of $37.5 billion is about the same as the midpoint of the guide and is slightly lower than the consensus estimate of $38.1 billion. Roy is calling for adj. EPS of $0.83 and adj. gross margin of 73.5%, not far off the consensus estimates of $0.85 and 73.4%, respectively.
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