Why Micheál Martin’s Next Move Could Change Everything—And The Clock Is Ticking
Ever wonder how timing can be the ultimate lifeline—or the silent executioner—in the high-stakes game of political leadership? Picture this: if the Dáil hadn’t conveniently taken a break during the schools’ mid-term week, Micheál Martin might’ve been staring down a leadership challenge sharper than a guillotine’s blade right about now. It’s not just about power plays; it’s about when the players are on the field. The recent presidential election hasn’t sparked an outright mutiny—not yet—because, frankly, conspiracy thrives only when there’s a crowd willing to confront the captain together. Solo runs? They’re a nightmare no politician wants to face unless the winds of collective discontent roar loudly enough. Meanwhile, while the Taoiseach is off attending the UN climate summit in the Amazon, the political stage is silently set, and the ticking clock edges closer to a showdown that could redraw Fianna Fáil’s future. But here’s the twist: Micheál Martin’s survival might hinge less on masterful strategy and more on the elusive god of timing. Could a couple of weeks’ difference have rewritten the script entirely? In politics, as in business, seeing around corners is either a skill or sheer luck — and sometimes, timing is everything. LEARN MORE
Here’s a blunt fact: if the Dáil had been sitting across the week of the schools’ mid-term break, there’s a good chance Micheál Martin would be facing a heave right now, writes Gavan Reilly.
The primary reason that the presidential election has not resulted in an outright challenge to his leadership (yet) is because conspiracy is a contact sport.
Nobody wants the mortification of going on a solo run to call for the leader’s resignation, unless they’re sure that a critical mass feels the same way.
Indeed, by the time you read this, there’s a good chance that any leadership annoyance still won’t have manifested — because the Taoiseach will have been at the UN climate change conference in Amazonia and will miss the next possible showdown where middleground Fianna Fáilers could be swayed one direction or another.
The fallout from FF’s catastrophic electoral dismay has some distance to run and there is no way Micheál Martin emerges entirely unscathed.
Outsiders might wonder why the house of cards hadn’t already come down on the Taoiseach when Jim Gavin abandoned his misfiring campaign.
The reason is there was still a hope the party could salvage 12.5 per cent of the first preference vote, and recoup €250,000 of its (literally) sunk costs on the campaign.
There was a reason why most of Gavin’s posters were left hanging in public for almost three weeks after his withdrawal.
The only ones quickly removed were the select few that bore Martin’s face too.
What’s happening now is a function of Martin’s leadership style: when he took over in 2011 his own popularity was much higher than the party’s.
He put himself front and centre; the party had a front bench but he was its lead spokesperson on everything.
As the ranks grew and FF rebounded into government, the style never changed: now there are dozens of TDs whose only experience of life in FF is one where decision-making is top-down.
That stood to Martin up to now, because he had always been more savvy and politically aware than the rest of his party.
It was a solo decision to announce his personal backing for repealing the Eighth Amendment and to defer a general election by extending the confidence-and-supply deal with Fine Gael amid the tumult of Brexit.
But Jim Gavin’s recruitment was also a solo run.
Martin thought his combination of GAA and civil service was unbeatable; the truth was that as a fish out of water, he was unelectable.
Anger dissipates with time and there’s a good chance that when Martin is back to face down his critics — which will be after Connolly is sworn in — the problems do not seem as urgent as they do in the immediate aftermath of the election.
But if the critics do want to strike, they have to move quickly.
Allowing Martin to remain in situ until late November would mean, at the earliest, a leadership crisis or vacancy on the cusp of Christmas.
Leave him into January and suddenly the annual Oval Office showdown with Donald Trump is too close.
Leave him until after that, and the EU Council presidency is too close by to purge him. Leave him until after the presidency and it’s 2027 — the year he’s due to hand over the reins as Taoiseach anyway.
Martin could be saved not because of any political skill or tenacity, but simply because of timing. But timing in politics is everything: had Billy Kelleher made his move a week or two earlier, a vote against Gavin might not have seemed like a shot against Martin.
Had Maria Steen knocked on Oireachtas doors a fortnight earlier, perhaps she’d have got her nomination.
If the election had been a year earlier, perhaps Catherine Connolly’s comments on Nato and Russia would have landed more poorly.
Perhaps Mairéad McGuinness would have won?
The best politicians have the foresight to see around corners. The lucky ones don’t have to.
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