Crypto & Forex February 25, 2026 0 Comments

Warning Signs Everywhere: Why the Next 6 Months Could Crush Bulls – Are You Ready to Ride the Storm or Get Wiped Out?

Bitcoin’s rollercoaster keeps plunging, and honestly, it’s making even the most hardened crypto enthusiasts feel a bit queasy. On Tuesday, February 24th, BTC didn’t just dip—it nosedived 4.58% in just 24 hours, dragging the Crypto Fear and Greed Index down to a chilling 5, a level we haven’t seen since 2019. Now, here’s a thought: when fear hits such lows, are we witnessing the calm before the storm—or just a long, drawn-out winter? Ethereum joined the party but with not-so-great vibes, largely influenced by Buterin’s recent sell-off, causing synchronized sell-offs that scream one thing loud and clear—risk-off sentiment is dominating. Traders are retreating, investors are bailing, and for many, the question is whether this bearish mood is a blessing in disguise or the start of something uglier. Intriguingly, blockchain analytics suggest more Bitcoin is being sold at a loss than at a profit, hinting that we might be in the throes of what some are calling a “full transition to a regime of excess loss-realizing.” For the patient and sharp-eyed, these brutal phases—often lasting about six months—could paradoxically set the stage for the next big buying opportunity. But as we watch the market cap slip below realized cap levels and indicators dip deep into the red, it’s clear the next half-year might stay rough. So, are you ready to hunker down, or is it time to keep scouting for that elusive bottom? LEARN MORE

Bitcoin [BTC] continued its streak of bearish days on Tuesday, the 24th of February. It was down 4.58% in the past 24 hours, and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 5. This was an extremely low reading, last seen in 2019.

Ethereum [ETH] also posted losses, spurred by co-founder Buterin’s selling. The synchronized selling seen for the two leading crypto assets highlighted the risk-off sentiment, traders reducing exposure, and investors exiting the market.

More Bitcoin is sold at a loss than at a profit

Source: Glassnode on X

In a recent post on X, blockchain intelligence platform Glassnode pointed out that the 90-day realized profit/loss ratio was below 1. This meant that for the past three months, the average holder was selling Bitcoin at a loss.

This represented a “full transition to a regime of excess loss-realizing”, the post read. The extreme fear values and correlated sell-offs pointed to the same thing. Any greed in the market has been wiped out.

But that is not all. These kinds of extreme phases with a reading of under 1 tend to be sustained for six months. Once the realized profit/loss ratio climbs back above 1 and stays there, investors can take it as an onchain “buy signal”.

Source: CryptoQuant

The Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss has been falling since October 2025. The metric indicates the total amount of profit/loss in all the coins, represented as a ratio. The lower it falls, the less pressure there is on Bitcoin from profit-taking.

By itself, it does not give a buy signal for Bitcoin unless the ratio falls below 0. In this situation, the market cap is less than the realized cap- another sign that investors were facing losses on average.

The further the market cap falls from the realized cap, the more motive there would be for value buyers to enter the market.

Investors can keep an eye on the metric for parallels to the previous cycle before trying to buy Bitcoin near the bottom. As things stand, the next 6 months are likely to see further bearish price action.

Final Summary

The realized profit/loss ratio showed that Bitcoin holders were realizing more losses than profits over the past three months, a sign of a transition to a market extreme.
There is likely to be another six months of such bearishness, and NUPL readings below 0 will inform investors of a deep discount on BTC.