Crypto & Forex October 15, 2026 0 Comments

Why Two Countries Are Defying the Government Bitcoin Sell-Off—and What It Means for Your Crypto Portfolio in 2026

Here’s a curious little conundrum: in 2026, governments around the globe have collectively trimmed their Bitcoin stash by 1,635 BTC, shrinking from 647,231 to 645,596 BTC. And no, it’s not just a rounding error—Bhutan’s Bitcoin holdings took a staggering nosedive of 91%, plunging from nearly 6,000 coins to just over 500. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan and El Salvador seem to be playing the contrarian’s game, beefing up their Bitcoin bags instead. What’s driving these moves amid the wild ups and downs of the crypto world? And could these shifts hint at bigger stories beneath the surface—maybe a silent shuffle of assets away from watchful eyes or whispers of institutional selling pressures? With the U.S. still holding the lion’s share and economic forces tightening their grip, Bitcoin’s near-term path looks anything but straightforward. Ready to dive into the tangled web of on-chain data, government strategy, and market sentiment? Let’s unravel what this all means for Bitcoin’s future. LEARN MORE.

Government Bitcoin [BTC] holdings have declined in 2026, falling from 647,231 BTC at the beginning of the year to 645,596 BTC – a reduction of 1,635 BTC. In this, Bhutan recorded the sharpest decline, with its tracked holdings dropping 91% from 5,984 BTC to 518 BTC.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan and El Salvador are the only governments to have increased their holdings, with Kazakhstan holding an estimated 3,544 BTC and El Salvador adding 287 BTC.

Government’s Bitcoin holdings

Despite the overall decline, the U.S. remains the largest government Bitcoin holder with 328,372 BTC, followed by China with 190,000 BTC and the U.K. with 61,245 BTC.

Whereas, Ukraine’s officials reportedly hold 46,351 BTC, placing it fourth, while El Salvador ranks fifth with 7,803 BTC. However, the decline in tracked holdings does not necessarily mean all the missing Bitcoin was sold, as some assets may have been transferred to wallets that are not tracked.

Just like a recent report from AMBCrypto, which highlighted that the U.S. government transferred 833.6 BTC worth $71.6 million to Coinbase Prime on the 7th of October.

The Bitcoin imbalance

This comes as the U.S. institutional investors also appear to be facing stronger selling pressure. The Coinbase Premium Index, which remained deeply negative, indicated that Bitcoin is trading at a lower price on Coinbase than on Binance.

In layman’s language, such a drop signals weaker demand among U.S.-based investors compared with Binance participants, although they do not directly confirm institutional selling.

Bitcoin on-chain data — Source: CryptoQuant

All this comes amidst a concerning broader economic environment, which is also weighing on the bearish sentiment. For instance, rising bond yields make fixed-income investments more attractive, while persistent inflation and geopolitical conflicts add uncertainty.

Meanwhile, a stronger U.S. dollar can tighten financial conditions and reduce investors’ appetite for riskier assets such as Bitcoin. For Bitcoin, this creates a challenging near-term outlook.

Therefore, if institutional selling continues while liquidity remains tight, BTC could struggle to recover or face further downside pressure.

On-chain metrics tell a different story

This comes as the price of Bitcoin was trading at $83,168.42 at press time after a modest drop. Meanwhile, the RSI indicator moving below the neutral level suggests that the bears have overtaken the bulls.

Moreover, the narrowing and parallel running Bollinger Bands suggest that the current momentum might continue to stay.

On the other hand, the Bitcoin spot ETF has also seen $278.37 million in net outflows so far in October, following strong inflows of $2.65 billion in September.

But not everything is bleak, yet. As Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has recovered significantly in October 2026, rising to approximately 0.351.

Bitcoin Net Unrealized ProfitLoss (NUPL) — Source: CryptoQuant

This indicates that Bitcoin holders are sitting on substantial unrealized profits, suggesting improved market sentiment compared with the June–July period, when NUPL fell close to 0.10.

Final Summary

While the Bhutan government has seen a drop in its Bitcoin holdings, Kazakhstan and El Salvador are the only governments to have increased their holdings.
Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen $278.37 million in net outflows so far in October, following strong inflows of $2.65 billion in September.