Crypto & Forex October 6, 2025 0 Comments

Why OPEC’s “Modest” Output Hike Could Trigger a Major Oil Market Shakeup—Are You Ready to Profit?

Can you imagine oil prices playing a high-stakes game of tug-of-war, where geopolitical sparks and cautious production moves keep everyone guessing? That’s exactly where we are right now—Brent crude flirting over $65 a barrel, WTI not far behind, all while OPEC+ toys with just a modest production bump. But here’s a kicker: Ukraine’s recent strikes on one of Russia’s biggest refineries send shockwaves far beyond just barrels and bucks—they hit the nerves of global energy security. And as US rig counts show the first dip in weeks amid supply glut worries and political hang-ups, it feels like the oil market is holding its breath for the next big twist. How long can the fragile balance hold in a world where supply forecasts and speculators’ bets are flipping faster than a switch? Grab your coffee, because this rollercoaster isn’t slowing down anytime soon. LEARN MORE

ICE Brent was trading above $65/bbl while NYMEX WTI was seen approaching $62/bbl this morning, amid a modest OPEC+ production increase for November and higher geopolitical risks. Recent reports suggest that Ukraine claims to have attacked one of Russia’s largest oil refineries, Kinef oil refinery, which holds an annual processing capacity of over 20mt. The attack took place over the weekend (the second time in a month), as Ukraine continues to put pressure on Russia’s energy infrastructure, ING’s commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

OPEC+ to boost crude oil production in November

“Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed to boost crude oil production by 137k b/d in November (similar to last month), in contrast to markets expecting a more aggressive reintroduction of supply. The group remains cautious about increasing its production share in the global oil market on predictions of an upcoming supply surplus in the fourth quarter as well as next year. Last month, the IEA also predicted a record oil surplus for next year, primarily on rising OPEC+ supply.”

“Baker Hughes data shows that the US oil rig count saw its first weekly decline in six weeks following a weekly drop in crude oil prices. Recent data shows that crude oil rigs declined by two to 422 active rigs last week. While this is a very marginal decline, it does suggest that drilling activity may be stabilising on growing concerns over a supply glut and fears that a prolonged US shutdown would further hurt oil prices.The overall rig count (oil and gas combined) remains unchanged from last week and stood at 549 in the week ending 3 October 2025. However, it is still down 36 from the same time last year.”

“The latest positioning data shows that speculators sold 11,466 lots of ICE Brent for a second consecutive week over the last reporting week, leaving them with a net long position of 209,113 lots, a move predominantly driven by rising gross shorts positions. Meanwhile, the speculative data for NYMEX WTI is not available yet, as the CFTC weekly report was not released due to the ongoing government shutdown in the US.”