Crypto & Forex October 15, 2025 0 Comments

Is the GBP’s Mid-Level Performance Against the USD a Hidden Goldmine or a Warning Sign?

Ever wonder how the Pound Sterling manages to sneak a tiny win against the US Dollar—up just 0.2%—while the UK’s economic backdrop looks less like a celebration and more like a slow dance with trouble? Yeah, me too. It’s like watching Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England Governor, juggling soft labor data and stubborn inflation, trying not to drop the ball. The market’s vibe? It’s downright cautious, pricing in a more dovish BoE attitude after Tuesday’s disappointing job numbers. We’re not shouting ‘bull market’ here—far from it. Instead, we’re navigating a delicate tug-of-war as Sterling edges sideways between 1.33 and 1.34, stuck in a range that screams uncertainty. Curious how this will unfold and what it means for your portfolio or next move? Let’s break it all down and see what’s really brewing behind those Bank of England’s closed doors. LEARN MORE.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is up 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10, its gains reflecting a weaker USD rather than any improvement in the UK’s domestic situation, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

Fundamentals deteriorating as markets reprice dovish BoE following jobs Tuesday

“Fundamentals have deteriorated with a notable pullback in UK-US spreads, narrowing from their recent two year highs in a pullback that warrants attention. The outlook for relative central bank policy is shifting and rates markets are pricing in renewed dovishness at the BoE following Tuesday’s labor market disappointment.”

“The data were acknowledged by Gov. Bailey as he specifically highlighted the softness in the labor market and the need to balance this against above-target inflation. Markets are now pricing in nearly one full 25bpt by February, up nearly 10bpts over the past week.”

“The RSI is also pulling up from moderately bearish levels in the lower 40s and drifting back toward the neutral threshold at 50. Recent support was clearly observed in the mid-1.32s, and resistance appears limited ahead of 1.34 and the 50 day MA at 1.3476. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.33 and 1.34.”