The Oscars Revealed: The Shocking Twists and Untold Secrets That Could Change Everything This Year!
After what feels like an epic saga of award season drama, Oscars weekend is finally knocking at our door—and boy, this year’s race is as wide open as a sunlit park on a Sunday morning. Remember when we all thought Timothée Chalamet would cruise to victory? Well, surprise! The tides have turned with heavy hitters like One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme, and Sinners battling it out in a nail-biter showdown. It’s that kind of unpredictability that makes 2026’s Oscars especially thrilling—and honestly, a little nerve-wracking. So, who’s really got a shot? And which surprises will Academy voters drop on us before the curtain falls on March 15? Stick around, because this rollercoaster isn’t slowing down any time soon. LEARN MORE
5 min readAfter what’s felt like one of the longest awards campaigns in recent memory, Oscars weekend is finally here. The field is wide open this year, as One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme, and Sinners compete for the top awards in a race that’s truly coming down to the wire. Despite strong momentum in the Best Actor and Best Picture races, nothing feels settled. Of course, that makes 2026 an incredibly difficult year to predict.
Many early favorites, from Timothée Chalamet to One Battle After Another, have since given way to a late surge from Sinners. The same goes for fan-favorite films like Weapons and foreign film contender Sentimental Value, which are both entering the race after strong showings in other prestigious awards shows. Elsewhere, is there any hope left for Train Dreams?
If you’re looking for where the winds are shifting ahead of the big show on March 15, read on below for how Academy voters may surprise you leading up to Oscars Sunday.
Sean Penn in One Battle After Another.
Actor in a Supporting Role
The nominees: Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
Who will win: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
Who could win: Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) or Delroy Lindo (Sinners)
The two-time Oscar winner dropped jaws as Col. Lockjaw in One Battle After Another. Penn seems all but primed to add a third trophy to his collection after taking home the Actor Award and the BAFTA. And yet, Skarsgård won at the Golden Globes for Sentimental Value—one of the best films of the year that Oscars voters may want to honor in some way this upcoming Sunday, especially if they can double this award as a long-overdue first Oscar for Skarsgård. The same can be said for Delroy Lindo, who is riding the late-surging Sinners wave to a potential trophy.
Amy Madigan in Weapons.
Actress in a Supporting Role
The nominees: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
Who will win: Amy Madigan (Weapons)
Who could win: Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) or Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
Is this the year that the Oscars finally respect horror? After Madigan’s wins at the Critics’ Choice Awards and the Actor Awards, momentum is easily in her favor. She certainly deserves it for her unhinged performance as Weapons’s witchy villain—but only if the Academy is ready to evolve. Viewers may recall Demi Moore’s (The Substance) shocking Best Actress loss right when we thought the Oscars would embrace horror for the very first time. If they’re still not ready, it’s possible that momentum from Sinners or One Battle Another on Oscars Sunday could launch Mosaku or Taylor into the top spot instead.
Leonardo DiCaprio and director Paul Thomas Anderson in One Battle After Another.
Best Director
The nominees: Chloé Zhao (Hamnet), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
Who will win: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Who could win: Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
Out of the past six Best Picture winners, five have also won Best Director. The way the race is heading One Battle After Another is set to lose a lot more awards than people thought they would just a few months ago—but I can’t imagine Best Director going to anyone else. The poignant and highly entertaining film from one of America’s most respected auteurs pits Paul Thomas Anderson as a filmmaker who is due for an Oscar, even if the film loses elsewhere. Still, a Best Director win often signals a Best Picture win. If Sinners feels like it has the momentum ahead on Oscars night, Coogler may step in for a surprise upset. Even if it means small pickings for One Battle, it’s not as if Coogler doesn’t deserve the trophy too.
Jessie Buckley in Hamnet.
Actress in a Leading Role
The nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
Who will win: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Who could win: Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You) or Emma Stone (Bugonia)
As much as awarding Emma Stone for yet another bonkers Yorgos Lanthimos film feels like a swerve the Academy would totally pull off this Sunday, there’s little else blocking Jessie Buckley’s momentum. Not even the poor reviews for The Bride! seem to hurt her campaign. I’d personally love for Rose Byrne or Renate Reinsve to receive more attention, but it’s just Buckley’s year.
Michael B. Jordan in Sinners.
Actor in a Leading Role
The nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
Who will win: Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
Who could win: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) or Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
Is it crazy to say that Chalamet has completely tanked his chance to win Best Actor? After losing the BAFTA to I Swear’s Robert Aramayo and the Actor Award to Michael B. Jordan, his chances to easily take home his first Oscar are looking dim. Following the controversy around him dissing ballet and opera earlier this month, it’s possible that the Marty Supreme star ruined his best chance to hoist the trophy yet. Jordan’s dual performance in a fan-favorite entry might send him to the top of one of the night’s most contentious fields, but he has more than just Chalamet to pass on Oscars Sunday. DiCaprio is always a tough name to bet against, and Moura already pulled off the upset win in January at the Golden Globes. If it’s not Chalamet’s big night, the rest of the field is ready to step in.
Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another.
Best Picture
The nominees: Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams
Who will win: One Battle After Another
Who could win: Sinners
Sorry Train Dreams fans, but I don’t anticipate an indie upset this year. Best Picture winners usually go to the writer-director who pick up Best Screenplay or Best Director, and Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is still the betting favorite here. One Battle’s awards total this season far outweighs Sinners, despite Coogler’s late-season surge, and that’s mostly only due to their success at the Actor Awards. I’m not saying it’s impossible! Anora won as a last-minute contender last year despite heading into the Oscars with nowhere near the number of awards as One Battle. But even for all the Sinners fans hoping for a Best Picture upset (which could happen!) the award is still One Battle After Another’s to lose.
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