USD/JPY Surge: How Trump’s Unexpected Shift on China Is Quietly Triggering a Dollar Buying Frenzy—Are You Positioned to Profit?

The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with USD/JPY rebounding after slipping to two-week lows earlier in the Asian session. The recovery comes as the Greenback regains footing after President Donald Trump softened his rhetoric on China, helping stabilize risk sentiment and lift the Dollar across the board.

At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading around 150.38, erasing intraday losses after bouncing off a session low near 149.38. The move reflects renewed demand for the USD as investors unwind defensive positions heading into the weekend.

Speaking on Friday, President Trump said his plan to impose 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports “is not sustainable”, signaling a step back from his earlier hardline tone. He also confirmed he expects to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the upcoming APEC Summit in South Korea.

On the monetary policy front, traders are now fully pricing in back-to-back 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its October and December meetings, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

St. Louis President Alberto Musalem, speaking on Friday, said the central bank should avoid a “preset course” and pursue a balanced approach to policy. He noted that monetary settings are “somewhere between restrictive and neutral,” adding he could support another cut if risks to jobs rise and inflation remains contained. Musalem also cautioned that there is limited room before further easing would make policy accommodative.

Meanwhile, earlier on Friday, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that policymakers have “no preconceptions” about their next step and need to “examine more data” before deciding on any potential October adjustment. He emphasized vigilance toward global uncertainty and domestic wage momentum.

According to OIS pricing, markets now assign only a 10-20% chance of a rate hike at the October 29 -30 meeting, with a bias toward holding policy steady until inflation and growth confirm a durable uptrend.

A recent Reuters poll showed Japan’s core Consumer Price Index (CPI) likely re-accelerated to 2.9 percent YoY in September, up from 2.7 percent in August, suggesting underlying price pressure remains firm but not yet consistent with the BoJ’s sustainable 2 percent target.