Investing March 21, 2026 0 Comments

Weekend Reading: Why Dire Straits’ Untold Struggles Hold the Ultimate Lesson Every Entrepreneur Must Learn Now

What a week to keep your popcorn handy! Just when you thought the fears of an AI bubble and the ominous job-stealing robot overlords might steal the spotlight, enter stage left: President Donald Trump, who managed to shake the Nasdaq down into correction territory almost like it was a casual Sunday stroll. It’s ironic, isn’t it? Markets were already bracing for a bumpy ride, but nothing quite prepared us for the kind of kaboom that last happened back when Trump unleashed his “Liberation Day” chaos in 2025. Now, as the dust settles—and prices at the gas pump and energy bills ready to make us all wince—one can’t help but ask: are we witnessing the unraveling of the post-war global order, or just another wild chapter in the Trump saga? Strap in because this ride is far from over, and nothing short of the President’s next mood swing will keep us guessing. Curious for the full take? LEARN MORE

What caught my eye this week.

Well he’s achieved what the simultaneous fears of an AI bubble and the fear that AI would take all our jobs couldn’t quite manage.

For a moment yesterday, US President Donald Trump had sent the Nasdaq market into correction territory:

Of course it’s true that markets – especially US markets – have been cruising for a bruising for ages.

But still, we haven’t seen a decline like this since Trump last took his agenda to the global stage, when he was throwing around (figurative) bombshells back in April 2025 on his ill-fated Liberation Day.

Most of the tariff hullabaloo has since been unwound, either by Trump’s own backpedaling or the intervention of the US courts. And the final bill for his economic illiteracy has largely been paid by the US taxpayer, in the form of US firms and consumers.

It would be nice to think the Iran conflict will end the same way, and soon.

It’s possible. Despite Trump having said hours earlier that he wasn’t interested in a ceasefire with Iran, I woke to news that some tweet or segment from a Fox News pundit now had him pondering winding down his latest campaign.

Top Trump

We’ll have to see how Trump feels tomorrow. Nothing else will matter.

US politicians have been supine while enabling Trump’s second term antics – which is why he so swiftly went from abducting a head of state to at least taking the cellophane off the manual marked World War 3 – and he doesn’t appear bothered about the average US voter, either.

So despite the war cementing Trump’s status as the most unpopular president of all-time, so far he’s not for TACO-ing.

And yet the bombing potentially going into a fourth week is already surprising, given that the White House war aims appear to have been met:

But what about the ‘complete obliteration’ of Iran’s capacity to develop nuclear weapons, you say?

Don’t be silly. Trump assured us he’d already done that last year.

No doubt he’ll completely obliterate it again next year if he needs to.

The sick man of the G7

Falling stock markets are one thing, and arguably not even unwelcome. They come with the territory.

The unmooring of the world’s hegemonic superpower is another, more frightening thing. At the far end of that storyline is a long global conflict just one mistake away from the four-minute warning.

And slap-bang in the middle is good old Blighty, always ready these days to get the worst of it:

Other consequences that even those who complain that ‘politics’ – if that is what we’re witnessing – has no place on an investing website like Monevator will concede are relevant include a near-50% rise in the oil price to $100, and a direct hit on UK households:

- Energy bills could hit almost £2,000 a year… – Guardian
- …as gas prices reach their highest level for three years – This Is Money

There’s little that the UK government can do in response. Not least because Rachel Reeves has bills to pay of her own. Any breathing room from lower borrowing costs has again gone for now:

If yields stay up here for long they will kibosh any economic recovery. They’ve probably already done for a spring bounce in our beleaguered housing market.

Hence the UK economy will continue to languish – at least £100bn a year smaller than it would have been if we had remained in the EU, and thus £40bn short annually of the tax receipts that might have helped make things better.

But I won’t shoot more fish in the Brexit barrel today.

Indeed one can almost look fondly on our own poundshop populist-in-chief, given that Nigel Farage can apparently satisfy his own urges for crass showmanship and self-interest by charging £100 a pop to meet the whims of white supremacists on the Cameo app, when the alternative is blowing up the Middle East.

Falling down

Unlike our own witless foray into national self-harm though, something good could actually come out of this unnecessary conflagration with Iran.

Were the regime to fall and a version of democracy to take hold, I’d be the first to cheer Iran rejoining modernity. A bigger Dubai with better museums and restaurants, or more seriously a proper grown-up country with a global standing befitting its size, resources, and storied history.

However that end does not justify these means.

Veteran anti-American leftists must look back on President George W. Bush’s laborious efforts to establish a coalition and a cause for the Iraq war as fantastical. Something more akin to the Council of Elrond in The Lord of the Rings compared to this president, who sets the Middle-East ablaze one week then mutters about ‘taking’ Cuba the next.

But maybe you’re one of those supposedly tough-minded realists who thinks we’re just seeing how the world was always run, now President Trump has bravely pulled down the curtain?

Firstly, you’re wrong. This isn’t how the Western world was run for the past 80 years. (Granted it’s how it’s sometimes run in banana republics, or under African tyrants).

But secondly, there’s nothing tough about smashing stuff up for no good purpose other than to make a lot of noise to please your base and satisfy your ego.

Hard things require hard work, as well as holding your tongue and sometimes your power.

As Canadian PM Mark Carney eloquently put it at Davos in February:

For decades, countries like Canada prospered under what we called the rules-based international order.

We joined its institutions, we praised its principles, we benefited from its predictability. And because of that, we could pursue values-based foreign policies under its protection.

We knew the story of the international rules-based order was partially false, that the strongest would exempt themselves when convenient, that trade rules were enforced asymmetrically. And we knew that international law applied with varying rigour depending on the identity of the accused or the victim.

This fiction was useful, and American hegemony, in particular, helped provide public goods, open sea lanes, a stable financial system, collective security and support for frameworks for resolving disputes.

The rules-based order that some now scorn is exactly why the West enjoyed many decades of relative peace and prosperity.

But it’s also why, for instance, China was able to pull a billion people out of poverty, and why – and always most importantly and easiest forgotten – why the post-nuclear horror film Threads is still a work of fiction, as opposed to what happened last Tuesday.

Won’t anyone think of the despots?!

You might say the rules-based order was a lie that didn’t give Vladimir Putin or Kim Jong Un – let alone Saddam Hussein or any number of Central American dictators – a fair shake.

Fair enough, but at least be clear who you’re advocating for.

Similarly, you might find it refreshing to hear the leader of a nuclear superpower calling his NATO allies cowards for not diving into the latest mid-season plot twist for the Trump White House.

But don’t complain when every other country starts pointing nuclear missiles at their neighbours as a consequence.

As Janan Ganesh points out in the FT [Paywall] this week:

As of last month, there is for the first time in over half a century no binding agreement to limit nuclear arms between America and Russia, which have the world’s two largest arsenals.

What is this?

A wave of recklessness? Perhaps, but also a natural response to events.

If the worst that results from this circus is higher prices at US gas stations and another 20% down on the S&P 500 then we will have gotten off lightly.

But I’m inclined to worry that the unravelling of the post-WWII Western consensus will – eventually – come with a higher and bloodier bill.

Of course the United States is far from the first empire to grow fat, hubristic, and ignorant at the height of its power.

But it is the first to be run by a former TV game show host.

No wonder Wheel of Fortune, Jeopardy, and The Price Is Right seem to be the closest we have to a doctrine in Washington these days.

Housekeeping: email issues

It seems more Monevator emails have been going into spam and junk folders than even my critics’ complaints about my forays into politics would warrant.

The issue may be that I’ve been using URL shorteners to tidy up lengthy link addresses. So I’ll be cutting back on that.

Anyway if you’re reading this article on the website but you’re also an email subscriber who hasn’t seen an email for a while then please do double-check. Mark any Monevator emails you find in spam as ‘not spam’.

We’ve been doing three emails a week for many years now. That’s how many you should get!

Related, several dozen Monevator members are not receiving member posts over email, so they must be reading them on the site. (Via the growing Mavens and Moguls archives perhaps).

If that’s how you want it then fine. But if you’re a member and you’re missing the emails, then please make sure you’re subscribed to get all Monevator emails.

Re-subscribe if need be. (And again, look out for the confirmation email getting lost in spam…)

If that doesn’t work then please do drop me a line.

It’s our lovely Monevator members who keep the lights on around here these days, and I want you to read us exactly how best suits you.

Have a great weekend!

From Monevator

Year 3 withdrawal from the No Cat Food portfolio – Monevator [Members]

The wild last year of a linker – Monevator

From the archive-ator: Why commodities belong in your portfolio – Monevator

News

BOE vote 9-0 to hold interest rates steady on Iran war risks – Reuters via MSN

IT failure locked out Hargreaves Lansdown’s customers – BBC

UK housing costs rose 41% in five years, for owners and renters – Guardian

Banks keep £100 contactless payments limit despite new powers – City AM

Stopping gas dictating UK energy price could cut bills by £200, study finds – Guardian

Revolut to IPO above $100bn, says former licence boss – City AM

Comedian Sean Hughes’ £4m estate finally given to Shelter – Independent

Five-Year Annualized Value Premium (Jan. 2021 – Dec. 2025)

Value is back – Verdad

Products and services

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Sub-4% mortgage rates vanish as banks pull deals – Yahoo Finance

Typical new mortgage costs up £788 a year in a fortnight – BBC

What next for mortgages and how long should you fix for? – This Is Money

Average ‘shelf life’ of a mortgage is now just two weeks – Guardian

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Eight expensive mistakes to avoid when buying life insurance – Which

Santander switch offer: £200 + Amazon gift card – Be Clever With Your Cash

HMRC has a new ‘Tax Confident’ educational portal – GOV.UK

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How does shared ownership work? – Be Clever With Your Cash

Shrinkflation takes a bite out of Easter eggs – Guardian

Making Tax Digital myths debunked – Which

Homes for sale with uplifting views, in pictures – Guardian