Investing March 14, 2026 0 Comments

When Success Suddenly Stops: The Hidden Trap That Kills Businesses Overnight (And How to Outsmart It)

Ever notice how investing in riskier assets usually promises a fatter wallet down the road—except when it comes to emerging markets, where the returns can be more of a rollercoaster than a gentle ride? And just when you think economic shocks are what rattle investors most, along comes geopolitics to throw a global curveball, especially if the talk turns to war. Meanwhile, spreading your investments across geographies sounds like a smart move—unless you happen to be stuck in the US, Mexico, South Africa, or Chile, where diversification hasn’t quite played out as expected. These intriguing contradictions and nuggets of wisdom leapt off the pages as I skimmed the latest UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook—a stats-packed treasure trove that’s been my annual go-to for over two decades. It’s a bit like unearthing secrets from the investment universe, wrapped in numbers that keep reminding me past trends aren’t the whole story (looking at you, negative interest rates!). So, if you’re curious about what lessons history and data have in store for your portfolio, buckle up and dive in. LEARN MORE

What caught my eye this week.

Investing in riskier asset classes usually delivers higher returns in the long-term – unless you’re putting money into emerging markets as opposed to developed ones.

Economic shocks are more important to investors than geopolitics – unless the politicians turn to global war.

Geographic diversification has improved your return profile – unless you were a domestic investor in the US, Mexico, South Africa, or [checks notes] Chile.

Just a few of the (paraphrased) insights I gleaned from skimming the new UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook.

When I first encountered this annual stats smorgasbord from professors Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton 20 years ago – when it was the Credit Suisse Yearbook – it seemed like something out of J.K. Rowling.

Here were the secrets of the investment universe, compiled into one handy tome!

But subsequent years have shown again and again that past is only partially prologue in our particular fantasy realm. (Negative interest rates, anyone?)

All the same, I’ll always have a read of the Yearbook. Even the PDF summary is packed with morsels such as:

Since 1900, equities and bonds have on several occasions lost more than 70% in real terms.

Yet a 60:40 equity:bond blend has never declined more than 50%.

It’s just that after nearly three decades in the game, I see a statistic like that and think, “I suppose it’s overdue then…”

Have a great weekend.

From Monevator

Gold: an asset for troubled times – Monevator

The cheapest stocks and shares ISA on the market – Monevator

From the archive-ator: Why commodities belong in your portfolio – Monevator

News

UK regulator examines glitch that showed customers others’ accounts – Guardian

OECD warns UK is the only country with inflation above 3% – This Is Money

Revolut finally has a full British banking license – CNBC

UK house prices hit £301,151, says Halifax – This Is Money

AI scams drove UK reports of fraud to 440,000 last year – Guardian

Government under fire over ‘bungled’ crypto ISA policy [Paywall] – FT

IEA agrees to release record 400m barrels of oil – CNBC

Rented property in UK sees ‘largest value decline this century’ – This Is Money

Tesla set to supply electricity in Britain – Reuters

Trump sees massive increase in wealth as new billionaire list released – Sky

The debt beneath the data centre dream – Om

Products and services

^{Disclosure: Links to platforms may be affiliate links, where we may earn a commission. This article is not personal financial advice. When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested. With commission-free brokers other fees may apply. See terms and fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.}

Average mortgage rate tops 5% as lenders scurry to reprice loans – Guardian

Low-cost platform Lightyear has further reduced its fees – Lightyear

Get up to £1,500 cashback when you transfer your cash and/or investments to Charles Stanley Direct through this affiliate link. Terms apply – Charles Stanley

Barclays switch offer: £200, or £400 for a premium account – B.C.W.Y.C.

What’s happening to home insurance premiums? – Which

Get up to £3,000 cashback when you open or switch to an Interactive Investor SIPP. Terms and fees apply, affiliate link – Interactive Investor

Five mistakes not to make in your will – Which

Why authenticator apps are the best option for security – Oblivious Investor

First-class stamps going up to £1.80 from April – Be Clever With Your Cash

Victorian homes for sale, in pictures – Guardian

Comment and opinion

The 60/40 portfolio versus the bucket strategy – A Retirement Manifesto

Government is seizing ‘Henry VIII’ powers to direct pensions – This Is Money

How to rig an index to appease a billionaire – Keubiko’s Musings

Ways to cut the cost of commuting – Guardian

Why is it so hard to predict financial markets? – Behavioural Investment

“I make good money. Why do I still feel like this?” – Your Brain on Money

Rich or poor, we all share the same fate – The Root of All

How the Middle East war could affect your finances – Which

Buffett’s 90/10 is wrong. Even though it’s right – Humble Dollar

Portfolio theory in a spreadsheet [Podcast] – Rational Reminder

Naughty corner: Active antics

Hijacking the huckster’s hypebook – Investing 101

Exploring real wealth creation in UK stocks [Research] – J.O.A.M.

The untold story of Reddit – Quartr

Ten things on Berkshire Hathaway’s 10K – Kingswell

The best defensive strategies: two centuries of evidence [Nerdy, research] – Alpha Architect

Home or office working mini-special

Average UK office attendance at highest level since before Covid – Guardian

The great central London office crisis – Standard

Is legal uncertainty killing remote work productivity? – The Conversation

Kindle book bargains

The End of Reality by Jonathan Taplin – £0.99 on Kindle

Boomerang by Michael Lewis – £0.99 on Kindle

Money Men by Dan McCrum – £0.99 on Kindle

Economica by Victoria Bateman – £0.99 on Kindle

Or pick up one of the all-time great investing classics – Monevator store

Environmental factors

Net zero by 2050 is cheaper for the UK than just one fossil fuel crisis – Guardian

The planet is overheating. Why is the news looking away? – Grist

Peak District carbon capture plans hit opposition – BBC

Reversing extinction – Aeon

Can plastic-eating fungi help clean up nappy waste? – BBC

Extreme heat now affects one in three people globally, study finds – Guardian

Robot overlord roundup

The labour market impacts of AI so far – Anthropic

A library of ‘thinking prompts’ for Claude and other chatbots – Tom’s Guide

The legibility problem with AI science… – Asimov Press

…and the same sort of discussion regarding maths – Daniel Litt

The lobster – SpyGlass

Minimum wages and the rise of the robots [Research, nerdy, PDF] – NBER

Not at the dinner table

Carneymania is sweeping Canada – The Walrus

The Iranian warship the US sunk was unarmed. The US Navy knew it – New Republic

Why shadow tankers are the only ships moving through that Strait – The Conversation

TACOs with a side order of war porn – The Bulwark

I am sick and tired of all the winning – Drezner’s World

Freak out! – The Pursuit of Happiness

A web of financial ties between Trump officials and the industries they regulate – ProPublica

Why the US is facing a military defeat in Iran – Policy Tensor

What happens when low-skilled immigration is curbed [Research] – NBER

Off our beat

How geography determines architecture – Uncharted Territories

The science of personality change – Range Widely

Patrons of journalism – How Things Work

Should people start paying to visit the UK’s free museums? – Independent

Is low fertility in high-income countries here to stay? – C.R.R.

Rewind through 30 years of the World Wide Web [Interactive] – Web Rewind

Let it go – We’re Gonna Get Those Bastards

And finally…

“The statistic that separates skilled investors from the rest is the payoff ratio. If the hit ratio measures how often the investor right, the payoff ratio measures how right the investor usually is.”
– Clare Flynn Levy, Stock Market Maestros

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