Crypto & Forex May 12, 2026 0 Comments

Is Bitcoin’s 9-Day Rally the Calm Before a Massive Surge—or a Sneaky Warning Sign?

Is Bitcoin finally turning a profit—or is it just playing a clever game of hide and seek with the markets? Since May 1st, the adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for Bitcoin has held steady above the crucial threshold of 1 for nine consecutive days, signaling that the crypto is being spent profitably rather than at a loss. That’s no small feat in a world where market sentiments swing wildly like a rollercoaster. But what does this sustained streak really mean for investors? Could it be the calm before the next big surge, or just a momentary pause in an otherwise turbulent ride? Interestingly, the last time Bitcoin flexed this kind of profit muscle was late 2025, holding strong for 17 days—so history might just have a few lessons to offer. The market’s whisper now hints at a shift—from enduring losses to savoring steady gains—but with a cautionary note: dip below that magical 1 mark, and this upbeat vibe scatters like dust. At over $80,000 and climbing, Bitcoin’s recent performance demands a closer look, especially when other on-chain indicators like MVRV and Net Realized Profit and Loss echo this story of tentative recovery. The question is, will this newfound stability stick, or is it just a fleeting cameo? The intrigue’s real, and the numbers don’t lie—but they sure keep us guessing. LEARN MORE

The adjusted SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) for Bitcoin [BTC] has stabilized and is now in a structurally significant range. Since the 1st of May, the SOPR has been above 1 for nine days in a row.

Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) (1) — Source: CryptoQuant

To put it in perspective, a value greater than 1 indicates that Bitcoin is being spent profitably. However, if the value is less than 1, it means that the blockchain’s spent coins are losing money. The nine-day run attests to the fact that the profit is sustained rather than a one-time event.

Did such a positive SOPR streak occur before?

Such a long run was last observed on the 19th of October, 2025, and lasted for 17 days until the 4th of November, 2025.

Notably, though Bitcoin is absorbing profit-taking without experiencing an immediate decline in price structure, the situation is not yet bullish.

Put simply, this signals a shift from a market experiencing loss to one where participants are once again experiencing steady profits.

However, the current positive reading would be weakened if the SOPR fell below the 1 threshold, which would mean that the market is once again processing coins at a loss.

This comes at a time when Bitcoin was trading at $80,958.20 after a hike of 2.51% in the past week and a hike of over 11% in the past month.

Are other on-chain metrics telling the same story?

Along with SOPR, the MVRV ratio also suggested the same. According to Santiment’s data, short-term traders are once again making money, and medium-term traders are stabilizing. However, long-term investors continue to bear significant unrealized losses.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL), which stands at $172 million, indicates that investors are once more making money, albeit not to the exuberant degree.

Bitcoin Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL) — Source: CryptoQuant

In contrast to 2025, this indicates that realized profits are significantly lower, speculation appears to be more subdued, and selling pressure is easier to handle.

In fact, despite 2026 being a difficult year for Bitcoin, AMBCrypto previously reiterated,

Bitcoin is no longer behaving like a market outlier.

Final Summary

The SOPR, MVRV, and NRPL metrics suggested that Bitcoin was stabilizing and investor profitability was increasing.
However, realized profits and speculative activity are still quite low compared to the 2025 rallies.