Norwegian Krone Surges Against Euro: What Soaring NOK Flows Mean for Your Investments—Insights from Nordea
Is the Norwegian Krone gearing up for a comeback or just taking a breather before its next move? After a shaky June where EUR/NOK flirted with 11.35, Nordea’s Senior Macro and FX Strategist Sara Midtgaard throws us a curveball—expecting a dip back toward 11.00 by the end of July. What’s driving this shift? Think bigger daily NOK buys from Norges Bank, the seductive allure of rising Brent crude prices, and a potential rate hike in August. Yet, lurking in the shadows are the wild cards of US economic data and fickle equity markets that could shake things up anytime. So, will the Krone find its footing or stumble again? Let’s dive into the forces shaping this currency dance. LEARN MORE
Nordea’s Senior Macro and FX Strategist Sara Midtgaard notes that the Norwegian Krone (NOK) weakened in June, with EUR/NOK peaking near 11.35, but now sees limited further upside. She expects EUR/NOK to move back towards 11.00 by end-July, supported by larger daily NOK purchases from Norges Bank, potentially higher Brent crude prices, and an August rate hike, while US data and equity market weakness remain key risks.
NOK support from flows and oil
“With the exchange rate now having reached 11.35, we believe the balance of risks has shifted, and now see scope for a stronger NOK during July.”
“We now believe further upside is limited and expect the pair to move back towards 11.00 by the end of July.”
“We also expect Norges Bank to raise its policy rate in August, while markets currently assign only around a 60% probability to another hike.”
“We therefore see scope for EUR/NOK to move back towards 11.00 over the coming weeks, although stronger-than-expected US data and weaker global equity markets remain the main near-term risks to this view.”
“Under such a scenario, EUR/NOK could fall back towards the 11.00 level.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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