Why Gold’s Stubborn Hold on Losses Could Signal a Major USD Shakeup You Can’t Ignore
Gold’s dance beneath the $4,150 spotlight is nothing if not intriguing. Just when it seemed ready to tumble after touching those dizzying heights above $4,200 earlier this week, it held its ground—and then some. But here’s the twist: despite pausing its slip, Gold still carries a bit of a bruised ego heading into the European session, breaking a three-day winning streak. What’s driving this rollercoaster? A mix of geopolitical jitters around the Strait of Hormuz pumping safe-haven vibes into the US Dollar, while fading Federal Reserve rate hike bets are keeping USD bulls on a cautious leash. And yet, don’t count out the ever-persistent central banks quietly stacking up bullion—a reminder that this shiny metal’s allure is far from dim. So, is Gold gearing up for a comeback or gearing down for a deeper dive? Let’s unpack the layers, because when it comes to the markets, the only constant is surprise. LEARN MORE
Gold (XAU/USD) shows some resilience below the $4,150 level and, for now, seems to have stalled its intraday retracement slide from a two-week high, levels just above the $4,200 mark, touched earlier this Monday. The commodity, however, retains its negative bias heading into the European session and, for now, seems to have snapped a three-day winning streak. The US Dollar (USD) attracts some safe-haven flows amid tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and undermines the bullion. However, receding US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets hold back USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. Furthermore, persistent central bank buying turns out to be another factor lending support to the non-yielding yellow metal.
Despite a fragile US-Iran interim agreement, tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated as Iran seeks to tighten control over the strategic waterway. In fact, Iran’s ambassador to China said on Saturday that Tehran plans to introduce new service fees for ships passing through the strategically important waterway. The US, however, had rejected the idea of Iran charging vessels for using the strait. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and helps the Greenback to regain positive traction at the start of a new week, which, in turn, is seen undermining the Gold.
Meanwhile, traders trimmed their bets for interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in the wake of unimpressive US monthly employment details, released last Thursday, which pointed to softening labor conditions. Furthermore, easing inflation fears in the face of the recent slump in Crude Oil prices could allow the US central bank to adopt a more patient stance, taking the edge off expectations for a prolonged higher-for-longer interest rates. This, in turn, might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and limit any meaningful corrective fall in the Gold price.
Meanwhile, a World Gold Council survey highlighted last week that central banks are increasingly turning to Gold as protection against financial crises, inflation, and geopolitical risks. Moreover, almost 90% of respondents expect global central banks’ gold reserves to increase over the next year. Adding to this, the latest reserve report published by the European Central Bank (ECB) revealed that Gold has officially overtaken US Treasuries in global reserve allocations. Furthermore, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added another 320,000 ounces of Gold in May, marking its 19th straight month of increase in its Gold reserves.
Traders now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of ISM Services PMI. Apart from this, speeches from influential FOMC members will drive the USD demand later during the North American session and provide a fresh impetus to the precious metal. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for Gold is to the upside. Hence, the intraday pullback is likely to be bought into and remain limited, warranting caution before confirming that the recent recovery from the year-to-date low has run out of steam.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold could accelerate the corrective decline once 100-SMA on H4 is broken decisively
Friday’s breakout through the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and a subsequent move beyond the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June fall were seen as key triggers for the XAU/USD bulls. Moreover, the still-elevated Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 63 and a positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading hint that upside momentum remains constructive, even as the Gold consolidates just off recent highs.
Hence, weakness below the 23.6% Fibo. level around $4,164 is likely to find support near the 100-period SMA. The latter should provide a floor near $4,147, though a convincing break below would expose the structural low region at $3,940. On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 38.2% retracement near $4,302, followed by the 50% retracement level at about $4,415 and the 61.8% Fibo. near $4,527. Further up, the 78.6% Fibo. at $4,686 defines the broader bullish extension zone ahead of $4,889, or the April swing high.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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