Why South Korea’s Won is Climbing When Logic Says It Shouldn’t — The Export Puzzle Societe Generale Can’t Ignore
Isn’t it ironic how the Korean Won is feeling the heat even when exports are booming like a rocket fueled by AI? You’d think a 70.9% surge in export growth and a trade surplus ballooning to $36.2 billion would give the Won a fighting chance to break free from selling pressure. Yet, USD/KRW just breezed past that 1,550 psychological barrier, teasing investors with resistance levels flirting at 1,561 and beyond. It’s like watching a heavyweight champ weigh in heavier but still get pushed around in the ring. Now, with inflation spiking to 3.2% and AI-driven exports on the rise, the Bank of Korea’s gearing up to sharpen its policy tools—starting with a 25 basis point hike. Makes me wonder, in this dance between economic might and market sentiment, who’s really calling the shots? LEARN MORE
Societe Generale reports that the Korean Won remains under selling pressure despite strong export growth and a wider trade surplus. USD/KRW has broken above the 1,550 psychological level, with interim resistance identified higher. The bank links AI-driven export gains and rising inflation to a clearer path for the Bank of Korea to resume tightening, starting with a 25bp hike in two weeks.
Won under pressure despite robust exports
“The KRW is another Asian currency struggling to shake off selling pressure.”
“Strong export growth of 70.9% in June and the widening of the trade surplus to $36.2bn from $27.03bn in May failed to block the foray of USD/KRW above the psychological barrier of 1,550.”
“Interim resistance is situated at 1,561 before 1573/1580.”
“The AI led jump in exports and acceleration of inflation to 3.2% in June clears the path for the BoK to resume policy tightening, starting with 25bp to 2.75% in two weeks.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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