Why the Japanese Yen’s Calm Amid US Independence Day Could Signal a Game-Changer for Your Portfolio
Ever wonder how the quiet hum of a holiday can shake up the forex world? Well, Friday’s USD/JPY action proves it can — modest gains creeping in while traders take a breath for the US Independence Day. After that sharp tumble on Thursday, thanks to weaker-than-expected US labor numbers, the pair’s been playing it coy around 161.30. The Greenback took a hit after the Nonfarm Payrolls report hinted the labor market’s losing some steam— sparking speculation that the Fed’s might ease off its rate-hiking boots sooner than expected. But, like any savvy investor knows, initial selloffs often invite savvy position adjustments, and sure enough, the USD bounced back to regain some ground. So, are we witnessing just a holiday lull or the calm before the next big move? Stick close… it’s shaping up to be a wild ride. LEARN MORE
The USD/JPY pair posts modest gains on Friday amid thin trading due to the US Independence Day holiday. The US Dollar (USD) stabilizes against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after a sharp decline on Thursday following softer-than-expected United States (US) labor market data. At the time of writing, USD/JPY trades at 161.30 after falling to a two-week low of 160.49 earlier in the Asian session.
The Greenback weakened on Thursday after the latest US Nonfarm Payrolls report missed expectations, signaling that the labor market is cooling. Softer job creation reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may have less room to keep interest rates restrictive for longer, weighing on US Treasury yields. However, the US Dollar later bounced back as traders adjusted positions after the initial selloff, helping USD/JPY regain traction.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 161.29. The pair hovers around the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 161.29, leaving the near-term bias neutral as price consolidates between nearby levels. The 20-period SMA at 161.91 stands above current price and acts as dynamic resistance, suggesting upside attempts remain capped for now, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) easing toward the mid-40s hints at fading bullish momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.
On the topside, immediate resistance appears at the horizontal barrier near 161.39, ahead of the 20-period SMA cluster around 161.91. On the downside, first support is seen at 161.12, with additional cushions at 160.90 and 160.79, where prior horizontal floors and the broader trend base converge, and a sustained break below these levels would tilt the bias more decisively in favor of sellers.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
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