Is the American Dream Dead? Inside the “Lost Decade” Set to Upend Your Finances and Investments
Ever wonder what it really means when people start whispering about a “lost decade” for America’s markets? Imagine a stretch of time where the thrill of huge gains fizzles out, and instead, you’re stuck navigating a slow, grinding economy where inflation quietly chips away at your hard-earned returns. No fireworks, no sudden crashes—just a stubborn stagnation that could leave your investments in stocks, real estate, and commercial ventures barely moving the needle. It’s not just speculation; the warning signs—sky-high stock valuations, creeping bond yields, and real estate that’s either unaffordable or slipping in real terms—are flashing bright red. So here’s the kicker: if the usual strategies won’t cut it anymore, what’s an investor to do? In today’s deep dive, I’m laying out the real deal on America’s potential “lost decade,” breaking down why “doing nothing” is the sneakiest form of losing money, and how mastering smarter, hands-on tactics—especially in real estate—can not only protect your wealth but help you grow it when the easy money disappears. Ready to stop being a passive bystander and start playing offense? Let’s get into it. LEARN MORE
America could enter what nobody wants—a “lost decade.”
No huge gains, no massive price drops, just a slow, stagnating market where inflation eats away at the returns we once thought were normal. Stocks are already massively overpriced according to the CAPE Ratio and the Buffett Indicator, real estate is unaffordable and already seeing real price declines, and commercial has fallen off the proverbial cliff. Can we go up from here? The argument isn’t looking optimistic.
So, if it’s about to be a whole lot harder to make a return on real estate, in the stock market, or anything else worth buying, what should you do?
Today, Dave breaks down America’s “lost decade” and what to do to protect your wealth from inflation erosion that looks more likely by the day. There are ways to maintain strong real estate returns along the way, but most investors take the easy route and fail to profit because of it.
You can escape this “lost decade,” but only if you’re prepared for it.
Listen to the Podcast Here
Read the Transcript Here
Dave:
Are investors entering a lost decade where low returns become the norm? And I’m not just talking about real estate here, I’m talking about everything because the last 10 to 15 years were great. They made a lot of people really rich without doing much of anything. You could just buy the index fund, you buy a property and wait, and that worked. But the thing about long bull runs is history says they’re usually followed by long stretches where returns are pretty low or you get paid almost nothing. Now, this could take the form of a crash, but it doesn’t necessarily have to. It could just be a long grind where inflation quietly eats away everything you think you’re making. That can lead to a lost decade. And right now, a lot of the signals that have predicted lost decades in the past are flashing all at the same time.
Stocks are priced near the most expensive levels in 150 years. Bond yields just hit 5%. The Fed is now hiking again. And housing in real terms, we all know this, but it’s already four years into going nowhere. So today on On the Market, we’re going to weigh the possibility of a lost decade. We’re looking across the economy, stocks, bonds, residential, commercial real estate, to figure out whether the next 10 years could look very different from the last 10 and what you should actually do about it because a lost decade isn’t a reason to stop investing. I’d argue it’s a reason to get a whole lot better at it. This is On the Market. Let’s get to it.
Hey everyone. Welcome to On the Market. I’m Dave Meyer, chief investment officer at BiggerPockets. I’m a real estate and stock investor relevant for this show, and I’m also a housing market analyst. Today on the show, we’re talking about something I am genuinely curious about and a little worried about, to be honest, in my own investing. And I hope you know if you listen to this show or if you’re new here, I really try not to do any fear mongering, crash dooming, but when there is real risk in the market, I like to bring it up and talk about it. And I do think there is real risk here that in the immediate future, not just talking a year or two, but five, 10 years out, we may just see lower returns than we’ve become accustomed to over the last 10 or 15 years. And you see all sorts of signs for this, right?
Stock valuations sitting near record highs by basically every long-term measure. The Fed raising rates, which is pushing up bond yields, that puts pressure on all sorts of assets. We’ll talk about that more in a minute. And if you’re in residential real estate, you know this, but prices have been flat in real terms. They’re actually down since 2022 and commercial real estate, that is really down. And when you look at this, you have to think, is it going to get better and when? Or should we prepare ourselves for lower returns? I just want to call this out because for 15 years, I am included in this, all of us, a lot of wealth got built on sort of passive appreciation. The market did a lot of stuff for us. We had super low interest rates, which helps not just real estate, but also the stock market.
And it does seem that it’s going away for a while. And so who wins in this kind of scenario? It’s certainly not everyone. It’s not the kind of thing where lower interest rates were raising all tides. The people who not just survive, but do well in these kinds of environments are the people who are actually good investors. That’s the whole thesis today is should we expect lower returns and what skills do you need to have to protect yourself in that kind of environment? That’s the plan for today’s show. Let’s get to it. So first up, what’s a lost decade? I mean, it’s pretty self-explanatory, right? It’s 10-ish years where a specific asset class or maybe the whole economy delivers flat or negative real returns. I always call this out, but quote unquote real return. When I say that, that means inflation adjusted. And so if you earned 8% on your stock portfolio, but inflation was 3%, you would get a 5% real return.
You take your nominal return, you subtract inflation, that’s a real return. And that’s what we’re talking about today because I think one of the big risks in a lost decade is that inflation eats away at your profit. We’re already seeing this in residential housing, right? Nominal prices are going up, but inflation’s eating away the benefit of that. That’s why we have negative real returns. So keep that in mind, that’s what I’m going to be talking about today. And again, it’s not exactly 10 years. It could be seven years, it can be 12 years, it could be 13 years, but history shows us that when you have long bull runs, things slow down, right? I do not like when people say what goes up must go down in assets and investing. Historically, that is not true. Just look at the housing market, look at the stock market.
Yes, there is variation. There are cycles, but does it go up generally over time? Yes, of course. We have absolutely seen that in the United States. But does that mean your rate of return, your rate of growth needs to stay at these all time highs or stay at some consistent level? Definitely not. Just as an example, if you look at 1999 to 2009, that 10-year period, the S&P 500 averaged roughly 0.9%. So it actually averaged negative 1% for the year, right? You held on to the world’s most popular investment and you lost money over those 10 years. Now, if you held on and you kept going for the last 15 years, you’re probably pretty happy with yourself. But if you’re going to have these downtimes, you might choose to do something different with your investing strategy. Now that is not the only example. There are plenty of other examples in history.
I mean, the famous one is from 1929 to 1939. Index was losing about five and a half percent per year through the Great Depression. So there is historical precedent for this. And I do want to be careful in saying that I am not predicting a crash. Do I think there’s risk of a stock market crash? Yeah, I do. But I’m not saying that’s necessarily what’s going to happen. A lot of times in these lost decades, there’s a crash, there’s a recovery, there’s another drawdown, goes sideways for a little bit. It can be very up and down. It’s not all bad. It’s definitely demoralizing. And I think that’s the thing is that people bail when it’s kind of demoralizing and sometimes that’s the wrong time. So that’s sort of a lost decade. And the question then becomes, are conditions that set up other historical examples of lost decades showing up again?
And again, I want to start with stocks. We’re absolutely going to talk about commercial and residential real estate. I’m going to break those both down, but the stock market is the most measurable and the most concerning example in my mind. So let’s just get into this. Even if you don’t invest in stocks, this stuff matters because if the stock market crashes and people lose money, there’s less money to go into real estate, especially in luxury and that kind of stuff. This stuff does carry over, so it matters. The main way that lost decades have been predicted when you look historically at data is by something called the CAPE ratio, cyclically adjusted price to earnings. This is the famous Robert Schiller, the economist’s metric. But basically what it means in plain English is you take the price of the S&P 500, the biggest, most popular index in the world, and you divide it by the average of the last 10 years of inflation adjusted earnings.
I’ll just simplify it even more. It basically looks at valuations of stock and how much value you’re getting based on their earnings smoothed out without booms and busts. So you’re looking at a 10-year period and you’re saying, how expensive are stocks relative to how much do these companies earn? And as of right now, the answer is very, very, very expensive. The CAP ratio as of the beginning of this month in September was at about 41 as of this recording, right? 41. Now that may not make a lot of sense to you, but let me just tell you, the long run average is 17, meaning you’re paying more than double the long-term average. Now I’ll provide some more context, but let me just say this for right now. The only time it has ever been higher than 41 was in late 1999. And if you follow any economic or financial history, you know that was immediately before the dot-com bubble burst and the S&P 500 lost 49% over the next two and a half years, 49%.
That is a massive, one of the biggest crashes in the stock market in history. And I should say there have only been 20 total months since 1881 when CAP ratios have been higher. That is something to keep in mind. When we’re looking at lost decades, this is one of the best predictors. And I want to be clear, it’s really bad at predicting the timing. It doesn’t even claim to predict timing. It’s not saying, oh, it’s going to happen this month, this week, the next quarter, a year from now. What it’s good at doing is helping you set expectation for the future. Because think about it, if you’re going in with a high, high, high valuation, how does it get that much higher? You would need massive earnings growth and some people are betting on that, but you would need massive earnings growth from all the companies that make up the S&P 500.
And so I think it’s reasonable to say if they’re starting at a super high valuation, is it going to keep going up at these rates? I have questions about that. It’s the same thing with real estate or anything else. You see these massively expensive things. Are they going to keep getting more expensive? That’s basically what it’s saying. But it’s not just this measurement of the stock market. If you look at something called the Buffet Indicator made famous by Warren Buffett, basically he divides the total value of the stock market divided by GDP. He’s the most famous value investor in the world. And he said this is the best indicator of valuation. The Buffet indicator is at 232% right now. The average is 88%. Buffet himself once said anything around 200 is playing with fire. He said that exactly. It’s at 232%. And so again, none of these things are exactly predictive.
None of them say the stock market’s going to come tomorrow. They are measures of value. And what they are saying is that value is relatively low. And so are people going to keep paying up and up and up and up when the value gets worse and worse and worse and worse and worse? And the bets on corporate earnings are pretty speculative in my mind. It’s not just me saying this. This isn’t just random Dave musings. Big firms are forecasting this. Vanguard, one of the biggest who has a vested interest in the stock market, Vanguard, they make all of their money providing index funds. They are predicting that over the next decade, stocks returning only 3.9 to 5.9% before inflation. That’s nominal. So if inflation kept up, that means real returns would be half a percent to two and a half percent at current inflation rates, maybe inflation will go down.
That’s not very good. That’s way below what it’s been. That is not significantly better than a bond. At the high end, it’d be two and a half percent. A bond is offering one and a half percent real returns right now. Bond is much safer bet than stocks. So keep that in mind because there’s going to be some competition from bond markets against stocks. But it’s not just Vanguard. Goldman Sachs, one of the biggest banks, investment banks in the world, thinks that they’re going to get nominal, not inflation adjusted 3% per year. Inflation’s 3.5%. Goldman Sachs is saying that we are going to get negative real returns on the stock market. They also put a 72% chance that bond yields are going to be better than the stock market. So this is real stuff. I do want to present the counter argument as I like to do.
It’s not 1999. Companies now are way more profitable, generally speaking, than they were in 1999. There was a lot more speculation in my mind in 1999 than there is now. After tax, corporate profits, they’re way up. They’re more than double what they were back then. If you measure these in different ways like market cap to profits, like we’re trading at 20X today versus 30X today. So smart people think that the stock market will go out. And a lot of the high valuation is backed by real earnings. Others, in my opinion, not. I am very skeptical. I’ll just tell you right now about the whole AI thing. People are spending so much money and it’s backed by no earnings. There is circular financing. There’s so much scary stuff happening there. But my take on all this is that I’m not calling a crash, no one can time it, but when valuations start this high, I just think it’s irresponsible to plan for the next decade to look like the last one.
Everyone on social media is out there being like, look at how great just investing in S&P 500 is over the last 20 years. You should have done that. It’s like, yeah, it was great over 20 years. That does not mean at all that that’s what’s going to happen for the next 10 or 20 years. Same thing in real estate, right? Yes, the long-term trend is up, but if you’re trying to plan for the next five, 10, 15 years, you got to look at what’s actually going on and valuations being really high makes me a bit skeptical. That’s the stock market, but we got to talk about real estate. We got to talk about bonds and everything else that’s going on here to see if there are ways that you should be investing your money that’s better than equities or is the whole economy going in this direction?
We’re going to get to that right after this quick break. Stick with us.
Welcome back to On the Market. I’m Dave Meyer. Today we’re talking about the potential of a lost decade, and I’ve shared my skepticism about the stock market. I’ll just tell you, I have a lot of money in the stock market. I’m not selling it right now, but man, my trigger finger is feeling itchy, but I’m trying to stay disciplined, not trying to time the market. I have reduced my exposure to some of the riskier types of stocks, but just want to say that even though I’ll be honest about what I am doing with my own money is that I am very skeptical about the stock market, but so far I have not sold anything. That might change. I will let you know, but so far I haven’t. But this is kind of why we’re talking about this, right? I’m trying to figure out what to do with my own money and I have been investigating this idea of a lost decade and what to do about it.
So that’s why I’m sharing this with you. So on top of just stocks, we got to talk about bonds for a minute. I know everyone hates bonds, but they rule the world, as I always say. As we know, Fed hiked rates. We are seeing yields on 10-year US treasuries above 5.1%, and this really matters. It matters a lot for real estate, which we’re about to talk about, and that’s going to push up mortgage rates, it’s going to push up commercial lending rates, but it also creates competition for the stock market. I mentioned this a little bit earlier, and I gave you an example. Same dollars. There’s this finite amount of dollars out there. Well, you can argue they’re going to print more. I would almost guarantee that. But still investors have dollars and they have to figure out how to allocate that money. And so stocks are riskier than bonds.
And when the delta, the amount you can earn on a stock gets close to bonds, that hurts the stock market because people are saying, “Hey, I gave you this example before. I can earn a two and a half percent real yield on stocks, one and a half percent real yield on bonds. I’m going to take the bonds because there’s almost no risk in that instead of taking the stock.” Bonds are often called a risk-free option. It’s not totally risk-free. There’s definitely risk that the government’s going to print money and devalue your repayments, but they call it the risk-free option because it’s kind of what everyone bases their investing off of. If you can get 5% yield on a 10-year US treasury, are you going to go buy a commercial real estate asset at a forecap? You shouldn’t. It’s not a good idea. That’s why I think commercial is still in for a lot of trouble because it’s getting more competition from bonds.
When you buy a commercial asset, you’re buying an income stream. You can buy a higher income stream by buying a bond. So are cap rates going to expand? Probably, in my opinion. So again, this is why the bonds rule the world is because it sets the baseline for everything else. And when bonds go up, when yields go up on bonds, riskier assets look less attractive to investors, to stock investors and to real estate investors. And so that is another big part of this. And as I’ve talked about on the show, you go back two weeks, I did a whole show on the bond market. I don’t think the bond market’s coming down without a serious recession. And so if we get a serious recession, probably not good for the stock market either, probably not great for real estate either, right? Maybe that improves, but I think we’re going to face competition from the bond market going forward.
We’ve had historically low bond yields for decades now. It’s heading in the other direction, and I think we’re probably around that for a while considering where we are with our national debt. I’m saying all this because yes, in the stock market, I do think it’s a valuation problem. I think we have that in real estate too, but there are just structural things that are hurting potential returns across asset classes, and I’ll just summarize them. I won’t go back into this for a long episode rambling. Summarize them as inflation and national debt. Those are going to hurt us. It creates a lot of challenges in the economy, and I think we’ve ignored them for a long time and we can’t forever. I don’t know if that develops into a crisis, but it creates competition. It creates questions. So something serious to think about. With that, let’s turn to residential real estate.
Let’s get to our world because as you probably know, even though headlines keep saying that home prices are at an all-time high, and that is technically true, that is nominal. That is not inflation adjusted. If you look at the inflation-adjusted home prices, they are down 4% since its peak in 2022, and that is more than four years after that peak. This is why I have said we’re in a great stall because home prices aren’t crashing 4% down off peak four years into it. Certainly not a crash. That is a very mild correction in my mind, but that’s why we’re in a stall. Even though prices are going up nominally, that’s why I said we’re in a stall because real home prices are stalled. They have stalled out. And so the question is, are we in for a similar thing that I was talking about in the stock market where we just get lower returns into the future?
I’ll just tell you, I think yes. I think yes. I think we have this indefinite period where appreciation is going to be slow. We can look to history and see some precedents of this. If you look at the late ’70s, early ’80s, we had low affordability, similar to now, really high interest rates. Prices were not what they are now in terms of income to price ratios, but mortgage rates were super high. So affordability was very low. It’s the best comp we have to affordability today. Super high inflation, but there really wasn’t a lot of distress. There wasn’t forced selling, similar to what we have today. And what we saw over this period of time from 1979 to 1986, real home prices, inflation adjusted home prices dropped about 11% over a seven-year period. People debate how much. Freddie Mac says actually the drop was even bigger, it was like 17%, but real home prices dropped.
It was kind of this stall similar to what we’re seeing now. And from what my research, I looked not just at that one period, but if you look at the real home price growth over time, it’s what happens. You get run up in appreciation, then it’s flat. Run up in appreciation, then it’s flat. Run up in appreciation, then it’s flat. And the mean, the average, the mean duration is about seven years, but there’s a lot of variance there. So that means even though the average is seven, sometimes it’s four, sometimes it’s five, sometimes it’s 12 years. So I’m not predicting seven years, do not get me wrong, but seven years is the average and we’re four years into it. So could it resolve itself in the next two to three years? There’s a chance. I think there’s a chance. If I had to guess, is it going to be shorter or longer than seven years?
I’d guess longer. I’d err on the side of longer because I just don’t see how affordability improves in the short term. It could. A recession, we can get lower bond yields and lower mortgage rates. Prices come down a little bit more. Maybe people jump in. Government starts doing quantitative easing again and artificially lowering mortgage rates, buying MBS, that kind of stuff could happen, right? So it could happen, but without government intervention, probably going to be a little bit longer. That is my guess. And again, not a crash scenario, right? There’s low distress right now, strong equity positions, tight-ish inventory. So that supports nominal prices, but inflation is going to eat away at the value of these homes. That’s what has happened historically. Outside of 2008, that’s actually what a real estate correction looks like. Home prices stay flat, inflation eats away at it, prices come down in inflation adjusted returns.
And I think that is still the most likely case. I do think nominal home prices can come down a little bit. I’ve talked about that a lot recently, but I don’t see any evidence right now today of a 2008 style crash. I really, really don’t. I would tell you, I really, really don’t. So that’s sort of my read on residential real estate is are we seeing a lost decade? I think kind of yeah. In inflation adjusted terms, I think a lost decade is possible. Might it be seven years or eight years? Yes. But do I think four years into this we’re around the corner from recovery? No. I’ve been very honest about that. I know people on the panel disagree with me, people in the comments disagree with me, but I’ve been saying this for years. The ingredients aren’t there. Does that mean you shouldn’t invest in real estate?
No, absolutely not. We’re going to talk about that. You just have to have a different strategy. You just can’t count on market appreciation. You have to turn to other things, which are absolutely possible. But before we talk about that, I kind of want to just quickly talk about commercial real estate, but we got to take one more quick break. We’ll be right back.
Welcome back to On the Market. I’m Dave Meyer. Today we’re talking about the potential of a lost decade. We talked about stocks and bonds and residential real estate, but I want to quickly talk about commercial because it’s a very different story than all these other asset classes actually, because commercial real estate has kind of already had its reset. It’s notoriously annoying and frustrating to get data on this, but I’ll just throw out some numbers. Blackstone says that commercial real estate, it has gone down 22% from 2022 to 2024. The Green Street commercial property indirect says it’s down 16%. Commercial real estate is made up of so many sub-asset classes. Office is down 35%, for example. Retail’s doing okay. Industrial’s doing pretty well. Multifamily’s probably down 15 to 25%, somewhere in there. So it really depends what asset class you’re in. But the big picture is that these prices actually have come down.
Unlike the stock market still high, residential in a correction, but haven’t seen meaningful price declines where all of a sudden the value of a home has fundamentally changed. 35% off office prices, that’s a different story. And although prices have come down, there really hasn’t been a recovery. I actually think they’re going to come down more if I had to guess. With recent Fed moves, with bond yields rising, like I said before, the competition from bonds for commercial real estate is going to be real. So I think this is going to be painful for commercial. It already has been and I don’t think it’s going away. So I actually think this might have a good next decade. If you look at this and say, “Hey, it might not return the corner this year or next year or the year after that, but if you buy in the next three years, what is your 10-year outlook?” I think pretty good.
I think commercial real estate for me right now, biggest upside in market appreciation. Now, I love residential. I primarily invest in residential because you can do things like value add, because you can buy deep, because there’s inefficiencies in the market, because of the tax benefits, because it’s stable, because it doesn’t go down 25% over the last four years, like commercial real estate. So there’s plenty of reasons to like residential. I will still invest in residential. But if you want to know where the value is, it’s going to be in commercial real estate. That’s what I think. I’m not an expert on every asset class. I do not invest in retail. I do not invest in office. I do not invest in industrial, really. I’m in some industrial REITs, but not really. The things I actually have direct ownership of is multifamily and the value’s going to be there, I think.
You got to buy it well because I think prices could still keep coming down depending on the market. But if you want to buy low, this is where you’re going to be able to do it in the next couple of years. So that’s just my take on commercial real estate. We’ll have James on, Brian Burke on. They talk about this, but I think they tend to agree as well. So those are the asset classes, but what does this all mean for investors? Where does this leave you? I’ll just say this. The way I think about it is you got to be good at investing. We are not going to be in a decade where you could just throw money into Robinhood or into an index fund into an average duplex that you buy on market or a commercial REIT or whatever, a syndication, God forbid, and make a lot of money.
I just don’t think that’s going to be the case. You’re going to have to be good at it. I know that some people will hear this and think, oh, I don’t want to invest, but think about what I’ve been talking about. The risk here is inflation. I mean, again, AI worries the hell out of me, and how much money is getting poured into that with no foundation at all. It’s a house of cards. But inflation’s a big risk. So if you don’t invest, you’re going to lose money.That’s a guaranteed loss. So just doing the math quickly, let’s just call it a hundred bucks. If you do nothing for 10 years and inflation rate stays at 3%, we don’t know, but just say it does, that means your $100 in 10 years is going to be worth $74. So you lost nearly 25% of your spending power over 10 years by doing nothing.
And of course, you probably put it in a savings account, so some of that is offset. Saying it another way, in 10 years to buy something worth $100, you need $134. So there is risk in that. So the way to think about this is how do you get good enough to at least beat inflation and try and get better returns than the average? I’m doing that in two ways. Listen, I am not an expert on the stock market. I don’t pick individuals. I do a little bit. I’m okay at it, but I mostly just invest in index funds. Now, I haven’t sold stuff. I did a little bit in 2025 to actually reposition some money into private lending and that kind of stuff, but I am not selling as of right now in the stock market. I am tempted to, but I have not, but I’ve de-risked my holdings.
I have changed the index fund to be low risk, less exposure to tech and AI, more exposure to blue chips, international stocks. I do this because even though I think the stock market probably will go down, I don’t really know. What if the government intervenes? What if they print money? I don’t know. The economy is so confusing right now. The future is so uncertain. I do like to be diversified, but I am diversifying at low risk. I actually have the software that analyzes your stock portfolio, and I know that the way my stock portfolio is positioned right now, if the stock market keeps going great, I’m going to earn less than the average person, but I’m okay with that because if it goes badly, I will lose less than the average person. And that’s the mode I’m in right now. How do I preserve capital and still gain some modest, solid returns?
I am not trying to be greedy. I don’t care if I don’t get the best returns. I am in a more defensive position, particularly in the stock market. Overall, even though I haven’t sold yet, we’ll see, but I haven’t sold yet. I’m not expecting great returns from my equities, my stock portfolio in the next 10 years. Maybe I’m wrong and that would be great, but my expectations are just low. So I’ll keep some in that. I do invest in gold also as an inflation hedge, but where do you find yield? To me, it’s still real estate. That’s where my skill actually matters, because that’s where I can actually make a difference. As I said, I’m growing increasingly interested in commercial real estate. I think the window is starting to open. I think we’re going to have some time here, and I think it’s going to stay open for a couple of years.
The stress is real. It’s getting bigger. You got to be diligent, but a buying opportunity is coming in commercial real estate. I believe that. For residential, yeah, it’s harder to pencil in on paper, but because there hasn’t been a steep drop in values, but steep drops are uncommon. So this is why in residential, you can still make good returns, but it can’t be based on market appreciation. It has to be based on buying below market comps, getting great deals and value add. The market’s not going to do the work for you. You have to focus on what you can be good at. I have been saying for a while, years now, and I think this has helped me. My portfolio still performs right now, even during these weird years, because I’ve been underwriting for zero appreciation. If appreciation keeps pace with inflation, great, that’s a bonus, but the deal has to work without it.
We talk a lot about this, but you profit, the appreciation, you get two ways right now. You need some form of appreciation to make a deal work right now because cash alone, tax benefits alone, amortization alone, it’s okay, but you need some way to really juice the return. You need some upside. And so if the market’s not going to give you appreciation, how do you get it? How do you build equity? You buy deep, you buy below market comps and you just walk right into equity, probably the best way to do it. Going to be increasingly easy to do this as there’s more inventory coming on the market or value add. You buy something low, you fix it up, you add value, and then you hold onto it. Flipping’s pretty risky right now. You can still do it, but it’s risky. But a burr, a slow burr, that definitely still works.
So those are the ways that you get that appreciation and then you just have to be good at operations. So if you get good at those three things, good at operations, keep your tenants happy, keep them in there, keep vacancies low, maintenance costs low, you buy deep and you’re good at value add, that’s where yield’s going to come. That’s really where I see the opportunity in the next 10 years, commercial real estate and that. I hope I’m wrong about the stock market and it goes up and everyone makes a bajillion dollars, but I am increasingly skeptical and I would just rather, I feel more comfortable individually investing in things where your skill and your experience and your network and your business plan matter because man, they’re doing some crazy stuff with circular financing right now. I have no say over that. I have no say in what all these mega companies, that seven companies that make up something like a quarter to a third of the S&P 500, their spending on AI is not backed by earnings.
I will tell you that. Everyone knows that, but they still invest in it. So I have no say in those decisions that they make. So I am going to turn in these kinds of decades, in these kinds of scenarios to things that I have some control over. And I do think value is going to be there. In these kind of markets, that’s where inefficiencies happen, where more people are willing to sell at lower prices. So you still got to be active.That’s the only way to prosper in these kinds of times. You can’t sit it out. And so you just have to be disciplined and look to the areas where you can find yield. And to me, I’ve told you what I think, but let me know what you think. Let me know the comments. I’m very curious if you think my analysis is right, if you think we’re on pace for a lost decade.
I know a lot of people buy into the AI narrative that we’re going to get massive earnings growth and productivity growth and that’s going to lead to a stock market boom. Maybe that’s your opinion. I’ve shared mine, but I’m curious what you think or where you’re going to be able to find yield in the next decade. Let me know in the comments below. Share it with the on the market community. Let’s all help each other get through this period. That’s our show for today. Thank you all so much for watching and listening this episode of On the Market. I’m Dave Meyer and I’ll see you next time.
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In This Episode We Cover
- America’s “lost decade” that could upend returns for real estate, stocks, and more
- The one asset class that has potential upside in the coming years
- Why “not investing” is not a strategy that will save you from wealth erosion
- Why we could go years without home price appreciation or solid stock gains
- The two indicators flashing right now that are signaling an overpriced market
- And So Much More!
Links from the Show
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