WEALTH May 23, 2026 0 Comments

Unlocking the Hidden Price Tag: What No One Tells You About the True Cost of Keeping Promises

Trying to nail down commentary in a whirlwind of global upheaval? Well, welcome to the columnist’s paradox — by the time words hit your screen, the world could’ve flipped yet again. Take the Strait of Hormuz, for example: maybe it’s open now, maybe not. Either way, the aftermath of conflict in Iran won’t quietly vanish overnight. We’re talking shattered energy infrastructure and a volatile landscape that’s set to keep reverberating for years to come . And here’s where the plot thickens for Ireland: a much heftier-than-expected government surplus sits tempting on the table. Should the state dive in with a mini-budget to cushion consumers battered by soaring costs? Or is holding cash in reserve the smarter play, bracing for tougher days ahead when the chill of autumn bites deeper and fuel prices don’t just magically drop? But hey, it isn’t just the folks filling their tanks or heating their homes who’re squeezed by inflation — it’s the government’s grand plans too: from building social housing to flood defenses and public health goals, rising costs threaten to crumble ambitions. So here’s the kicker — can we afford to dream big when money’s getting tighter by the day? Or will the state have to bite the bullet and put more euros on the table to keep those promises alive? This isn’t just number crunching on a spreadsheet; it’s about the very blueprint of people’s lives and futures — and man, that’s a heavy load to juggle in these crazy times. LEARN MORE

Trying to write a piece like this in a time of global flux is a bit of a columnist’s curse, writes Gavan Reilly.

Perhaps by the time you see this, the Strait of Hormuz may have reopened — through diplomatic means or otherwise — and the oil supply shock will have already begun to ease.

But even those holding the purse strings are transparent about how long-lasting the aftershocks of war in Iran will be: so much energy infrastructure has been destroyed that it will be a couple of years before there is any hint of a full return to the status quo ante.

Much has been made of whether the Irish government ought to be more proactive with the cash at its disposal.

This year’s general government surplus — originally estimated to stand at €5.1bn — is now expected to come to €9.2bn thanks to resilient corporate tax revenues.

Politically, the argument naturally follows about the merit of a mini-budget — using that extra ballast to intervene in the here and now, helping consumers through hard times.

That intense instability is a good counterargument in and of itself. Twice already ministers have stepped in with cuts to excise duty on motor fuels.

Inevitably, there will be another intervention before Budget 2027 in October; nobody expects fuel prices to have fallen so far that motorists can absorb a 32c rise in diesel by restoring excise duties and the NORA levy.

Nor does anyone think haulage and farming industries can tolerate a cliff edge in their existing short-term support schemes.

By default, the thinking therefore goes, some more financial firepower must be kept in reserve so that consumers are not unduly harmed come August.

The quiver cannot be emptied of its arrows right now; raiding the cupboard in summertime might only mean a lean autumn when households use even more energy to stay warm.

But consumers are not the only ones who feel the pinch of inflation.

Governments, too, see their own plans fall apart when the value of a euro falls. In housing, for example, the government set aside €5.2bn in capital spending for this year — which was supposed to deliver 5,115 local authority homes, 4,935 units through approved housing bodies, and secure 11,500 social tenancies.

Those are targets which simply can’t be met if construction inflation turns out to be higher than expected.

Look elsewhere in the government’s data trove for Budget 2026 and you’ll see other metrics that now look iffy.

Can the Office of Public Works still commence work on two town-level flood-relief projects if its capital budget of €376m won’t stretch as far as expected?

Will it still be able to plan and begin work on 640 projects this year if construction firms are paralysed by cost insecurities of their own, and reluctant to reply to tenders?

The downstream consequences are everywhere. Will the HSE meet its target to deliver 166,532 mammograms if the mobile units behind them face higher operating costs?

Will it still cut, by a third, the number of people waiting over six months for their first appointment with counselling services if the cost of living makes it harder to recruit overseas professionals?

Will the public sector payroll expand to 397,000 by the end of the year if there aren’t premises for them all to work in?

These are not just meaningless cells on a spreadsheet somewhere in the Department of Public Expenditure.

These numbers represent the fabric of people’s lives — whether they can raise a family under a roof of their own, whether they can live along and healthy life, whether their country will still be inhabitable during extreme weather.

cost — In housing the government set aside €5.2bn in capital spending for this year

Nobody can ever comprehensively plan for the unexpected. But if life is about to get more expensive indefinitely, the government too will find its spending power stunted.

Either it accepts lesser ambition, or it stumps up the cash to meet its own promises.